PAPod 521 - Navigating Risk and Chance: Lessons from a Bluegrass Festival

WEBVTT 00:00:00.017 --> 00:00:04.797 So I was at a bluegrass festival earlier this year. Let's just go with that. 00:00:06.037 --> 00:00:10.257 And Saturday night, the big night, that's when they always have kind of the 00:00:10.257 --> 00:00:11.957 big shows on the main stage. 00:00:12.437 --> 00:00:17.137 And usually the final show, the Saturday night closeout show, 00:00:17.357 --> 00:00:21.517 is the giant act, the one everyone comes to see.

00:00:22.117 --> 00:00:27.517 And they canceled the show because of lightning, which makes sense. 00:00:27.717 --> 00:00:28.957 I mean, it's an outdoor festival. 00:00:29.637 --> 00:00:34.177 Lightning is, you know, lightning. They're standing up there with wires and 00:00:34.177 --> 00:00:38.937 microphones and all sorts of little lightning attractive things.

00:00:39.337 --> 00:00:40.797 And they canceled the show. 00:00:41.337 --> 00:00:43.477 And, of course, everyone was super disappointed. 00:00:44.037 --> 00:00:50.657 But a person I was with said, well, it makes sense because they wanted to manage the risk. 00:00:53.840 --> 00:01:03.280 Music.

00:01:02.597 --> 00:01:06.897 Hey, everybody, Todd Conklin, Pre-Accident Investigation, and it's time for 00:01:06.897 --> 00:01:10.077 the pod. So I hope you're doing well. 00:01:10.557 --> 00:01:15.717 This is a very interesting time. This is always the first part of November, 00:01:15.977 --> 00:01:20.217 which is, you know, when I was born.

It's my birthday time. 00:01:20.497 --> 00:01:26.217 But it's really fun because I have loads of friends, and that's always something 00:01:26.217 --> 00:01:31.117 that I'm very grateful of. there are many of us that are all born kind of in the same time. 00:01:31.397 --> 00:01:34.377 Like there are four of us, and we hang out pretty regularly, 00:01:34.697 --> 00:01:37.997 that are all born within like a week of each other.

00:01:38.097 --> 00:01:44.017 So it's kind of a fun time, and we usually do big, giant celebrations and have all sorts of fun. 00:01:44.617 --> 00:01:48.417 And it's happening again this year. I mean, I'm sure you got your invitation. 00:01:48.937 --> 00:01:53.077 If you didn't, it's coming in the mail.

It'll be there soon for some kind of 00:01:53.077 --> 00:01:59.337 giant, you know, probably on a yacht, maybe a blimp, some kind of giant party. 00:01:59.817 --> 00:02:01.477 I'm sure we'll have that planned for this year. 00:02:01.977 --> 00:02:07.017 And I'll give you a full report on what happens, which tattoos were received, 00:02:07.017 --> 00:02:11.637 who gave them, were there misspellings, you know, the normal kind of stuff we talk about. 00:02:12.017 --> 00:02:14.097 That's all exciting.

So that's fun. 00:02:14.517 --> 00:02:18.537 And other than that, just, you know, kind of winding the year down, 00:02:18.897 --> 00:02:21.657 which is always kind of a good time as well. 00:02:22.197 --> 00:02:25.717 It's been interesting. I've gotten kind of a lot of bicycle time, 00:02:25.977 --> 00:02:27.897 which I always think is good time.

00:02:28.397 --> 00:02:32.097 Because I've decided when I ride my bicycle... 00:02:33.185 --> 00:02:38.625 I've got two things that I've decided. One is it's a really good time to think. 00:02:39.385 --> 00:02:45.165 And do you have a time to think?

I mean, I'd be curious to kind of wonder what 00:02:45.165 --> 00:02:47.365 your thinking time is, where it is. 00:02:47.745 --> 00:02:51.205 But it's kind of nice to have a place where you can just think. 00:02:51.665 --> 00:02:58.185 And so that's always a huge fringe benefit of going out for a bike ride. 00:02:58.285 --> 00:03:02.525 Being outside is great.

It's fun to get around. I see people. 00:03:02.945 --> 00:03:06.765 It's funny, when you ride a lot, you see the same people over and over and over again. 00:03:07.285 --> 00:03:11.445 So you kind of, it's kind of funny.

You sort of have a relationship, 00:03:11.445 --> 00:03:15.525 even though you don't know this person at all, but you've seen him a million times. 00:03:15.745 --> 00:03:21.345 Like there's a gray-haired guy who listens to the radio who has a Copenhagen 00:03:21.345 --> 00:03:26.585 wheel on his bicycle, and I see him all over town, and I see him with great regularity. 00:03:26.805 --> 00:03:29.885 So that's kind of a fun part of bike riding. The other thing is I've decided 00:03:29.885 --> 00:03:36.945 about one out of every 100 people yell at you, you know, get off the road or some other thing.

00:03:37.485 --> 00:03:44.125 Usually you just kind of smile and wave, which kind of cuts the payoff for them 00:03:44.125 --> 00:03:49.685 and reduces the amount of exposure for something weird happening. 00:03:49.685 --> 00:03:54.765 But that's always kind of an interesting part of riding the bicycle. 00:03:54.765 --> 00:03:58.725 And so that's been really fun and a great time. 00:03:59.045 --> 00:04:01.285 And, you know, other than that, it's November.

00:04:01.685 --> 00:04:03.785 What else can I say? November is November. 00:04:04.205 --> 00:04:06.825 And November is always pretty fun. 00:04:07.265 --> 00:04:12.085 I'm recording this before the election results.

00:04:12.705 --> 00:04:15.825 So I don't have any idea what's going to happen. 00:04:16.585 --> 00:04:20.805 And as I've said to you a million times, and you've said it back to me a million 00:04:20.805 --> 00:04:24.165 and one times, human beings are relatively bad at predicting. 00:04:24.765 --> 00:04:27.725 And we're going to talk about that today a little bit. And because we're bad 00:04:27.725 --> 00:04:29.905 at predicting, I have no idea what's going to happen.

But we'll see. 00:04:30.285 --> 00:04:31.925 You know, that's all going to see. 00:04:33.145 --> 00:04:37.165 It's just a really exciting time to be alive. And it's even a more exciting 00:04:37.165 --> 00:04:42.905 time to spend with you and do a quick podcast, which is exactly what I want 00:04:42.905 --> 00:04:44.645 to do.

So before we go much further... 00:04:45.698 --> 00:04:48.978 Let's pick up where the story left off. 00:04:53.798 --> 00:04:57.578 So yeah, so this friend says they've got to manage risk. 00:04:57.678 --> 00:05:02.478 And I said, is it risk?

Are they managing risk? 00:05:02.858 --> 00:05:05.278 Are they managing chance? 00:05:05.958 --> 00:05:10.478 Because I started thinking about this because I guess we had nothing else to 00:05:10.478 --> 00:05:11.578 do. They canceled the show.

00:05:12.058 --> 00:05:16.178 And I thought risk is defined. 00:05:17.038 --> 00:05:21.818 And I guess lightning is risky. I mean, I think I'd lose that argument if I 00:05:21.818 --> 00:05:22.998 tried to have that argument with you. 00:05:23.418 --> 00:05:28.618 But it strikes me that lightning is more of a chance than a risk.

00:05:29.278 --> 00:05:34.458 And I think it has to do with maybe the amount of control we have as human beings. 00:05:34.578 --> 00:05:38.678 Now, the term for that is agency, the amount of agency we have as human beings. 00:05:38.678 --> 00:05:42.918 But I started thinking about it, and it's really kind of the old, 00:05:43.018 --> 00:05:45.318 are you good or are you lucky? 00:05:46.118 --> 00:05:51.298 And so I think that's something we should talk about because this has really 00:05:51.298 --> 00:05:55.258 been on my mind, partially because I was super disappointed that the show got 00:05:55.258 --> 00:05:57.958 canceled because there were a couple of really good bands.

00:05:58.138 --> 00:06:01.418 And if I think of the name, see, I don't even remember the name of them. 00:06:02.058 --> 00:06:05.418 One was especially good. They're from California, kind of jazzy, 00:06:05.918 --> 00:06:08.058 bluegrass jazz kind of combo. 00:06:08.678 --> 00:06:17.738 But anyway, this idea that risk is what we control is kind of an interesting 00:06:17.738 --> 00:06:20.278 idea.

So we can define all these terms. 00:06:20.458 --> 00:06:22.898 I mean, they all have definitions, and you probably know them all. 00:06:23.558 --> 00:06:30.378 Risk, traditionally, I've always looked at risk as the probability that a person 00:06:30.378 --> 00:06:35.618 will be harmed if something happens, if exposed to a hazard. 00:06:36.358 --> 00:06:42.898 So it's probability, I guess, times consequence.

I hate to make fake math equations, 00:06:42.918 --> 00:06:46.598 but there's a relationship between probability and consequence, 00:06:46.598 --> 00:06:49.578 which lets us do kind of a risk ranking. 00:06:49.878 --> 00:06:53.498 But I've told you before, and because we've talked about this a bunch, 00:06:53.998 --> 00:06:58.878 that risk ranking is never really about risk. It's about resource management. 00:06:59.778 --> 00:07:05.038 But risk is really that idea, what's the chance that this bad thing could happen?

00:07:05.298 --> 00:07:09.978 Oh, man, I just used the word chance, and I'm trying to build this case between risk and chance. 00:07:10.218 --> 00:07:15.218 What's the probability that this bad thing could happen? I may solve my own 00:07:15.218 --> 00:07:16.998 problem in the middle of this podcast. Who knows?

00:07:17.818 --> 00:07:23.038 And so risk is really interesting. And a lot of people think about this a lot. 00:07:23.038 --> 00:07:26.438 I mean, this really, like John Adams, if you haven't read him, 00:07:26.598 --> 00:07:29.838 his work on risk is very, very interesting. 00:07:29.958 --> 00:07:32.098 And there's a lot of people that think about this.

00:07:32.498 --> 00:07:40.198 It's funny, you don't hear it so much amongst the scholars of kind of the new safety thinking. 00:07:40.678 --> 00:07:43.678 They don't really talk a lot about risk. And partially because, 00:07:43.958 --> 00:07:48.718 generally speaking, risk has been in the domain of kind of the safety engineers. 00:07:48.718 --> 00:07:56.578 Engineers so they can do a calculation and determine numerically what risk is going to be.

00:07:56.798 --> 00:08:01.178 And I'm not saying these are bad things. I'm just saying that's kind of how 00:08:01.178 --> 00:08:02.178 this has worked traditionally. 00:08:02.978 --> 00:08:10.878 The new safety scholars will tell you that in a complex world with highly adaptive sort of systems, 00:08:11.378 --> 00:08:17.318 that the ability to do a calculation is really leaning on kind of old school 00:08:17.318 --> 00:08:21.978 thinking, kind of linear thinking in a nonlinear world that it'd be hard to calculate. 00:08:22.418 --> 00:08:25.478 So we talked about this.

I mean, we've struggled with this for a while. 00:08:25.898 --> 00:08:29.298 And one of the things that happened, at least in the world I live in, 00:08:29.478 --> 00:08:36.818 is we realized that risk ranking, because it's based upon resource availability, 00:08:36.818 --> 00:08:41.518 how much are we going to spend to manage this potential thing that has not happened yet? 00:08:42.138 --> 00:08:45.478 It really was sort of dictated by potential consequence. 00:08:45.878 --> 00:08:52.038 So that's where consequence comes in.

So if it's highly likely that it'll happen, 00:08:52.038 --> 00:08:57.818 but the consequence is super low, then that didn't warrant a lot of attention. 00:08:58.018 --> 00:09:00.578 But if it's highly unlikely that it'll happen, but if it did, 00:09:00.678 --> 00:09:02.078 the consequence was super high, 00:09:02.438 --> 00:09:10.538 then we found the ability to resource that and provide control or barriers or 00:09:10.538 --> 00:09:13.618 somehow mitigate the hazard as it was. 00:09:13.778 --> 00:09:18.058 And that is kind of interesting because is risk different than hazard? 00:09:18.378 --> 00:09:19.698 Well, they're very different words.

00:09:20.458 --> 00:09:24.498 Risk is that probability of something bad happening. The hazard is the actual 00:09:24.498 --> 00:09:26.438 thing. So you can take a picture of a hazard. 00:09:26.938 --> 00:09:28.858 But then where does chance come in?

00:09:29.567 --> 00:09:34.147 And chance is really pretty interesting, because one of the things that I'm 00:09:34.147 --> 00:09:36.427 sure you're doing with your organization, and if you're not, 00:09:36.527 --> 00:09:40.847 you should be, is every time a near miss is reported, simply ask, 00:09:41.047 --> 00:09:43.827 were we good or were we lucky? 00:09:44.547 --> 00:09:48.227 And no matter what the answer, if they say, well, you had a near miss and you 00:09:48.227 --> 00:09:50.787 say, were you good or you're lucky? And they say we were good. 00:09:51.267 --> 00:09:54.307 We had the right controls in place.

We had the right barriers in place. 00:09:54.487 --> 00:09:58.027 We had the right systems in place that when this bad thing happened, 00:09:58.027 --> 00:10:03.127 we were able to manage it and control the consequence. 00:10:03.387 --> 00:10:05.747 Well, that's a good and you should reward that. 00:10:06.167 --> 00:10:09.707 But if they say we had a near miss, you say, were we good or lucky?

00:10:09.867 --> 00:10:10.887 And they say we were lucky. 00:10:11.547 --> 00:10:14.467 And you'll say what happened. and they'll say, well, we had no idea this could 00:10:14.467 --> 00:10:18.787 fail. We never imagined this would fail at this place at this time, and it did.

00:10:19.447 --> 00:10:24.347 Fortunately, when it failed, nobody was around, and so it had very little consequence. 00:10:24.807 --> 00:10:26.407 Henceforth, it's a near miss. 00:10:27.127 --> 00:10:32.427 That's also pretty valuable data because that tells you that you have a hazard 00:10:32.427 --> 00:10:38.567 in the field, an unimagined hazard in the field that you really have no controls over. 00:10:38.687 --> 00:10:44.487 So the system's really brittle there.

And learning that in kind of a free way, 00:10:44.707 --> 00:10:48.587 because near misses are gifts, learning that without the consequence, 00:10:48.747 --> 00:10:51.847 without the mess, is actually pretty incredible news. 00:10:51.847 --> 00:10:55.587 And because you got that pretty incredible news, well, you can go out there 00:10:55.587 --> 00:10:58.527 and put some controls around it and make it safer. 00:10:59.267 --> 00:11:04.147 Build a case for it to fail as elegantly and as extensively as it possibly can. 00:11:04.667 --> 00:11:09.527 But I think about this in really terms that we have to practically use.

00:11:10.127 --> 00:11:16.067 Because risk, hazard, and chance are all this need to sort of predict the future. 00:11:16.227 --> 00:11:21.027 And the crazy thing about this is that the amount of effort we spend trying 00:11:21.027 --> 00:11:26.447 to predict the future takes directly away from the amount of effort we spend 00:11:26.447 --> 00:11:29.507 currently trying to affect the future. 00:11:29.507 --> 00:11:35.827 And so it's always kind of better to not use your resources in predicting what 00:11:35.827 --> 00:11:40.147 will happen next in an uncertain world, because we don't really know what that answer is. 00:11:40.427 --> 00:11:46.867 It's probably always better to actually look at carefully and try to affect 00:11:46.867 --> 00:11:52.087 what's happening now in a way that has potential positive outcomes.

00:11:52.787 --> 00:11:56.187 Long story short, because this is kind of becoming a long story, 00:11:56.507 --> 00:12:03.827 that's what shifted the thinking around risk in super high consequence work. 00:12:04.802 --> 00:12:12.402 So instead of managing by probability, chance, lightning, the decision was made 00:12:12.402 --> 00:12:17.622 to assume that the probability of the bad thing happening is 100%. 00:12:17.622 --> 00:12:22.942 Now, that's expensive, and that's time-consuming, and that's resource-intensive. 00:12:23.422 --> 00:12:27.382 But if the consequence is significant, assume it will happen.

00:12:27.602 --> 00:12:32.962 And the best example I can sort of use for this, The one that comes to mind, 00:12:33.162 --> 00:12:38.102 the one that came to mind when we were walking back from the main stage after the show was canceled. 00:12:38.322 --> 00:12:40.502 And by the way, it rained like crazy. 00:12:41.002 --> 00:12:43.682 So it was a good call. A lot of times when they cancel a show, 00:12:43.782 --> 00:12:47.442 then it doesn't rain and you're like, aha, you're overly conservative and you 00:12:47.442 --> 00:12:50.022 ruin the weekend for us.

But we totally got the storm out of it. 00:12:50.122 --> 00:12:55.442 So it was a good call. When we were walking back, the discussion really became 00:12:55.442 --> 00:13:01.582 one of thinking in great detail about what this means. 00:13:02.002 --> 00:13:10.002 Because ultimately, probability is the desperate need to predict the future.

00:13:10.702 --> 00:13:18.502 And following data, whatever data we make up or assume, in order to determine 00:13:18.502 --> 00:13:23.902 probability, really assumes that there's an answer and there really isn't an answer. 00:13:24.502 --> 00:13:27.522 We don't know what the future will hold. 00:13:28.022 --> 00:13:34.302 And so if you assume it'll happen, then you can draw yourself to the comparison 00:13:34.302 --> 00:13:35.922 that I gave on the way back. 00:13:36.742 --> 00:13:40.322 And that's fall protection.

So why do we put people in fall protection? 00:13:40.542 --> 00:13:43.282 Well, the answer is, and almost always when I ask this question, 00:13:43.402 --> 00:13:44.702 people say, so they don't fall. 00:13:45.162 --> 00:13:49.002 Okay, so that's true, but not really. 00:13:49.482 --> 00:13:53.642 Because fall protection is really weird in that it doesn't really care about the fall part.

00:13:54.102 --> 00:13:58.182 What fall protection cares about is the recovery part, the landing part. 00:13:58.602 --> 00:14:04.882 So we put people in fall protection around the belief that there's 100% chance 00:14:04.882 --> 00:14:12.862 they will fall. And when they do fall, our system's robust enough to provide recoverability. 00:14:13.062 --> 00:14:22.382 We can recover and manage the consequence before it has ultimate and dire outcomes.

00:14:22.782 --> 00:14:30.662 So you fall, you jerk your lanyard, it catches you, you swing against the wall, 00:14:30.902 --> 00:14:35.302 maybe you bruise your ribs, but you didn't land on your head and die. 00:14:35.862 --> 00:14:41.322 Now, that's a really interesting example, because the assumption is, 00:14:41.382 --> 00:14:44.882 is that the probability of the fall is one. 00:14:45.162 --> 00:14:52.042 So when engineers or physicists talk about probability, they always say a probability of one. 00:14:52.402 --> 00:14:56.242 If you're not an engineer or a physicist, what they're really saying is there's 00:14:56.242 --> 00:14:59.642 100 percent chance that's going to happen.

We don't know when. 00:15:00.022 --> 00:15:04.442 We just don't know when. But we know it will happen. 00:15:04.442 --> 00:15:09.042 And when it does happen, because we assumed 100% chance of this happening, 00:15:09.402 --> 00:15:16.522 we've actually built into our systems that graceful extensibility that our friend 00:15:16.522 --> 00:15:20.382 David Woods talks about so elegantly in so much of his work.

00:15:20.682 --> 00:15:22.722 We've built recovery. 00:15:23.162 --> 00:15:28.182 And it's really that relationship between robust and resilient. Right. 00:15:28.802 --> 00:15:33.702 Or probability and chance.

They all have to exist with each other. 00:15:34.042 --> 00:15:40.782 And so the challenge is, is not that we manage risk, because risk is really 00:15:40.782 --> 00:15:42.702 normal and it's highly dynamic. 00:15:43.102 --> 00:15:47.562 Even if we could predict everything we could think of, we're missing all the 00:15:47.562 --> 00:15:49.102 things we can't think of. 00:15:49.462 --> 00:15:55.342 So if risk assessment really counts on imagination, I can imagine all the ways 00:15:55.342 --> 00:15:59.902 this system will fail, then we're limited by the fact that we can't imagine 00:15:59.902 --> 00:16:01.702 all the things that we need to imagine.

00:16:02.122 --> 00:16:08.522 There will always be the unimaginable. And we're often caught by the fact that 00:16:08.522 --> 00:16:10.322 there are things beyond our imagination. 00:16:10.942 --> 00:16:14.542 And you know that's true. I mean, you learn new stuff all the time.

00:16:14.642 --> 00:16:17.362 You learn new ways for things to happen. 00:16:17.482 --> 00:16:21.462 I talked to somebody just the other day who said they burnt their kitchen in 00:16:21.462 --> 00:16:25.122 their house because they left their crock pot on the counter. 00:16:25.582 --> 00:16:29.522 Well, here's what I'm going to tell you. I never in a million billion years 00:16:29.522 --> 00:16:35.302 imagined a crock pot left on a counter could start a fire because I always assumed 00:16:35.302 --> 00:16:40.662 a crock pot by design was built to be left on the counter.

00:16:41.042 --> 00:16:44.502 It's a slow cooker. I mean, that's what its job is. 00:16:44.682 --> 00:16:49.102 I never thought that it could create enough heat out of the bottom of the crock 00:16:49.102 --> 00:16:52.622 pot to potentially start a fire. but clearly I never imagined that, 00:16:52.902 --> 00:16:55.262 but I talked to somebody that it happened to.

00:16:56.302 --> 00:17:02.322 This idea that somehow risk is the thing we can control, or worse yet, 00:17:02.562 --> 00:17:06.602 chance is the thing we can control, I think that's beyond our scope. 00:17:06.762 --> 00:17:09.542 I just don't think we have the ability to do that. 00:17:09.922 --> 00:17:12.962 And because we can't do it, it sort 00:17:12.962 --> 00:17:19.902 of puts the onus on managing the recoverability. We want robust systems.

00:17:20.182 --> 00:17:25.842 We want strong, preventive-focused systems that stop bad things from happening. 00:17:26.042 --> 00:17:30.382 But we need resilient systems at the same time. 00:17:31.368 --> 00:17:36.188 So that when something unimaginable happens, our system is flexible enough, 00:17:36.508 --> 00:17:42.248 extensible enough, that when it does happen, the system can actually bend and 00:17:42.248 --> 00:17:49.988 sway and actually manage in a positive way the potential failure consequence. 00:17:51.108 --> 00:17:57.588 That's what you think about when you're coming back right before a giant storm 00:17:57.588 --> 00:18:01.828 happens from stage one of a bluegrass festival.

00:18:02.088 --> 00:18:06.188 You think about risk and chance. 00:18:06.388 --> 00:18:10.248 And you think about the relationship that that has. 00:18:10.508 --> 00:18:17.608 The probability of lightning striking that stage was probably gargantuanly high. 00:18:17.608 --> 00:18:20.208 Or maybe gargantuanly low.

00:18:20.728 --> 00:18:22.888 I don't know, because it's lightning. 00:18:23.468 --> 00:18:28.508 The challenge is to build a system that has enough recoverability in it that, 00:18:28.628 --> 00:18:34.048 in fact, we can function elegantly in the midst of uncertainty. 00:18:34.668 --> 00:18:39.788 And to be fair, not to be critical, but to be fair, they didn't have any recoverability 00:18:39.788 --> 00:18:42.088 in the bluegrass. They didn't have another Saturday night.

00:18:42.588 --> 00:18:47.128 So unfortunately, when they canceled those shows, there was no making up for 00:18:47.128 --> 00:18:48.668 it. I mean, there was no other time. 00:18:49.328 --> 00:18:52.048 They couldn't start them again at three o'clock in the morning, 00:18:52.328 --> 00:18:55.228 although that would have been a great idea. I kind of wish they would have done that.

00:18:55.848 --> 00:18:59.228 They couldn't start them the next weekend because, you know, 00:18:59.388 --> 00:19:03.848 people had to go to work and do stuff, which is kind of always what this stupid 00:19:03.848 --> 00:19:10.368 job does to us, creates a never-ending opportunity to go to work and do stuff. 00:19:11.048 --> 00:19:14.308 So we just kind of moved on and function that way. 00:19:15.246 --> 00:19:24.866 That's a little discussion about risk, chance, control, robustness, and resilience. 00:19:28.126 --> 00:19:32.366 What do you think, my friends?

That's an interesting pod. 00:19:32.566 --> 00:19:38.266 It's a birthday pod, so I can do whatever I want to. It's my birthday, so I can get away with it. 00:19:38.366 --> 00:19:42.086 But I do think it's a very interesting discussion.

00:19:42.086 --> 00:19:46.206 And I do think it's telling us, and this is one of the benefits, 00:19:46.386 --> 00:19:53.746 I guess, of this journey we're all on together, is that our traditional linear risk assessment tools, 00:19:54.246 --> 00:19:58.326 the risk ranking, the hazard grids that we have, 00:19:58.746 --> 00:20:08.026 the numbering, the valuing we put on risk probability versus consequence is 00:20:08.026 --> 00:20:11.246 probably a good starting place for the conversation. 00:20:12.086 --> 00:20:17.866 But probably not sufficient enough to carry us safely into high-risk work when 00:20:17.866 --> 00:20:19.166 we want it to matter the most. 00:20:19.866 --> 00:20:23.446 So that's a pretty important thing to think about. I don't know.

00:20:23.626 --> 00:20:28.786 It's made me think that risk isn't the part of the equation that we should be all freaked out about. 00:20:29.666 --> 00:20:33.866 It's really control. It's not, are we exposed to risk? 00:20:34.306 --> 00:20:39.006 That's not the right question.

The right question is, is when the bad thing 00:20:39.006 --> 00:20:43.726 happens, do we have enough of this graceful extensibility? 00:20:44.166 --> 00:20:51.066 Can our system bend and sway and flex and adapt in such a way that the consequence 00:20:51.066 --> 00:20:55.746 is managed, recovered, absorbed? 00:20:56.226 --> 00:21:00.426 It's a pretty cool way to think about it. I mean, I think it's worth our time.

00:21:00.566 --> 00:21:07.046 And it's definitely warranting some thinking time. 00:21:07.126 --> 00:21:12.106 The next time you're out on your bicycle or driving someplace far or wherever 00:21:12.106 --> 00:21:16.366 it is you think, I asked you earlier to think about this. You should have an answer now. 00:21:17.086 --> 00:21:22.486 Think about this and think about what it means to the way we manage operations.

00:21:23.366 --> 00:21:29.306 It's crazy because risk in the finance sector is how they make money. 00:21:30.266 --> 00:21:34.906 So risk in finance is an opportunity. 00:21:35.746 --> 00:21:40.106 Maybe the same is true for us in safety. 00:21:40.706 --> 00:21:45.606 Who knows?

Think about it. That's the pod. Short and sweet, baby. 00:21:46.006 --> 00:21:48.926 But that's the way to do it.

I'll see you again next week. Thanks for hanging 00:21:48.926 --> 00:21:54.486 out with me. It's always super fun to spend time with you. And I'm glad I'm there.

00:21:55.066 --> 00:21:58.566 I'm glad you're there, actually. That's even a better thing to say. 00:21:59.106 --> 00:22:01.546 Until then, my friends, learn something new every single day. 00:22:01.666 --> 00:22:03.926 Have as much fun as you possibly can.

Be good to each other. 00:22:04.106 --> 00:22:07.606 Be kind to each other. And for goodness sakes, you guys, be safe. 00:22:08.080 --> 00:22:20.099 Music.