Safety Moment - The Myth of Leading Data: Focus on Action, Not Prediction
Episode 873
PreAccident Investigation Podcast
Show Notes
In this episode of "Pre-Accident Investigation Safety Moment," Todd Conklin challenges the common pursuit of leading data, questioning its existence and value. He argues that the time spent trying to predict outcomes is time not spent on actively addressing and improving real-world issues.
Through a thought-provoking discussion, Todd emphasizes the importance of engaging with people, identifying risks, and implementing solutions to make a tangible difference. He encourages listeners to prioritize actions over predictions, urging them to focus on direct interventions that can lead to safer and more effective outcomes.
Join Todd as he explores the limitations of predictive technologies and behaviors, advocating for a proactive approach to safety and problem-solving. This episode serves as a reminder to stay engaged, be kind, and most importantly, be safe.
Show Transcript
WEBVTT00:00:00.017 --> 00:00:03.417
So here's the challenge we have, and we all share this challenge.
00:00:03.637 --> 00:00:07.477
And I talk about it all the time, and sometimes it really makes people angry.
00:00:07.637 --> 00:00:14.097
Like they get noticeably angry at me and walk away and storm out of the room
00:00:14.097 --> 00:00:21.877
and do all sorts of angry kind of stuff. But I'm pretty certain there's no such thing as leading data.
00:00:22.337 --> 00:00:26.397
And the reason I can say that is because I think if leading data existed,
00:00:27.017 --> 00:00:32.757
somebody smarter than we are would have discovered it and shared it and we'd all be using it.
00:00:33.217 --> 00:00:39.517
I actually think that is an important precursor to what we're going to talk about today.
00:00:39.517 --> 00:00:52.137
We'll be right back.
00:00:42.640 --> 00:00:53.200
Music.
00:00:52.597 --> 00:00:55.697
Hey, everybody. Todd Conklin, Pre-Accident Investigation Safety Moment.
00:00:55.817 --> 00:00:59.297
It's those tiny little moments where we just share a thought.
00:00:59.617 --> 00:01:03.757
Maybe it'll elicit something greater in your organization or when you're talking
00:01:03.757 --> 00:01:06.137
to people or maybe it's something you can use later. Who knows?
00:01:06.277 --> 00:01:10.497
It's just a thought. And remember, if we like them, we can talk more about them.
00:01:10.577 --> 00:01:14.297
There's no question about that. But let me start with this. Every minute you
00:01:14.297 --> 00:01:22.017
spend trying to predict an outcome, you are not spending that same time trying to affect the outcome.
00:01:22.877 --> 00:01:26.637
That's my big challenge with leading data. The reason we love leading data,
00:01:26.757 --> 00:01:30.257
the reason we're all on a quest for leading data is because it will tell us
00:01:30.257 --> 00:01:32.557
the future. It reduces uncertainty.
00:01:32.797 --> 00:01:35.037
It will tell us what's going to happen next.
00:01:35.317 --> 00:01:40.037
And I'm pretty certain that doesn't exist. I mean, I've not found it.
00:01:40.037 --> 00:01:44.517
If you find it, tell me and I'll gladly be wrong. I'm ready to be wrong.
00:01:45.017 --> 00:01:49.677
But I can tell you that every minute we desperately try to predict the future
00:01:49.677 --> 00:01:52.717
is a minute of time we're not affecting the future.
00:01:53.217 --> 00:01:59.017
And I actually think for us and the work we do, that's a pretty important piece of information.
00:01:59.837 --> 00:02:04.897
Because I think we get really wrapped up with this idea of predictive technologies,
00:02:04.897 --> 00:02:07.837
predictive behaviors, predictive outcomes.
00:02:08.277 --> 00:02:14.037
And I'm not sure they exist, but I do know for sure that the minutes we spend
00:02:14.037 --> 00:02:18.377
doing that are minutes we're not out there actually fixing problems,
00:02:18.857 --> 00:02:24.377
listening to people, talking to people about pain points, identifying places
00:02:24.377 --> 00:02:26.257
where control is low and risk is high.
00:02:27.017 --> 00:02:31.997
That is where you make your money. And that, I think, is the most important
00:02:31.997 --> 00:02:34.497
part of the entire discussion we have.
00:02:35.097 --> 00:02:41.037
Every minute you spend trying to predict an outcome, you are not spending that
00:02:41.037 --> 00:02:44.077
same minute trying to affect the outcome.
00:02:44.697 --> 00:02:48.777
Think about it. Learn something new every single day. Have as much fun as you possibly can.
00:02:48.937 --> 00:02:53.157
Be good to each other. Be kind to each other. And for goodness sakes, you guys, be safe.
00:02:53.200 --> 00:03:05.128
Music.
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-
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-
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Transcript
WEBVTT 00:00:00.017 --> 00:00:03.417 So here's the challenge we have, and we all share this challenge. 00:00:03.637 --> 00:00:07.477 And I talk about it all the time, and sometimes it really makes people angry. 00:00:07.637 --> 00:00:14.097 Like they get noticeably angry at me and walk away and storm out of the room 00:00:14.097 --> 00:00:21.877 and do all sorts of angry kind of stuff. But I'm pretty certain there's no such thing as leading data.
00:00:22.337 --> 00:00:26.397 And the reason I can say that is because I think if leading data existed, 00:00:27.017 --> 00:00:32.757 somebody smarter than we are would have discovered it and shared it and we'd all be using it. 00:00:33.217 --> 00:00:39.517 I actually think that is an important precursor to what we're going to talk about today. 00:00:39.517 --> 00:00:52.137 We'll be right back. 00:00:42.640 --> 00:00:53.200 Music.
00:00:52.597 --> 00:00:55.697 Hey, everybody. Todd Conklin, Pre-Accident Investigation Safety Moment. 00:00:55.817 --> 00:00:59.297 It's those tiny little moments where we just share a thought. 00:00:59.617 --> 00:01:03.757 Maybe it'll elicit something greater in your organization or when you're talking 00:01:03.757 --> 00:01:06.137 to people or maybe it's something you can use later.
Who knows? 00:01:06.277 --> 00:01:10.497 It's just a thought. And remember, if we like them, we can talk more about them. 00:01:10.577 --> 00:01:14.297 There's no question about that.
But let me start with this. Every minute you 00:01:14.297 --> 00:01:22.017 spend trying to predict an outcome, you are not spending that same time trying to affect the outcome. 00:01:22.877 --> 00:01:26.637 That's my big challenge with leading data. The reason we love leading data, 00:01:26.757 --> 00:01:30.257 the reason we're all on a quest for leading data is because it will tell us 00:01:30.257 --> 00:01:32.557 the future.
It reduces uncertainty. 00:01:32.797 --> 00:01:35.037 It will tell us what's going to happen next. 00:01:35.317 --> 00:01:40.037 And I'm pretty certain that doesn't exist. I mean, I've not found it.
00:01:40.037 --> 00:01:44.517 If you find it, tell me and I'll gladly be wrong. I'm ready to be wrong. 00:01:45.017 --> 00:01:49.677 But I can tell you that every minute we desperately try to predict the future 00:01:49.677 --> 00:01:52.717 is a minute of time we're not affecting the future. 00:01:53.217 --> 00:01:59.017 And I actually think for us and the work we do, that's a pretty important piece of information.
00:01:59.837 --> 00:02:04.897 Because I think we get really wrapped up with this idea of predictive technologies, 00:02:04.897 --> 00:02:07.837 predictive behaviors, predictive outcomes. 00:02:08.277 --> 00:02:14.037 And I'm not sure they exist, but I do know for sure that the minutes we spend 00:02:14.037 --> 00:02:18.377 doing that are minutes we're not out there actually fixing problems, 00:02:18.857 --> 00:02:24.377 listening to people, talking to people about pain points, identifying places 00:02:24.377 --> 00:02:26.257 where control is low and risk is high. 00:02:27.017 --> 00:02:31.997 That is where you make your money. And that, I think, is the most important 00:02:31.997 --> 00:02:34.497 part of the entire discussion we have.
00:02:35.097 --> 00:02:41.037 Every minute you spend trying to predict an outcome, you are not spending that 00:02:41.037 --> 00:02:44.077 same minute trying to affect the outcome. 00:02:44.697 --> 00:02:48.777 Think about it. Learn something new every single day. Have as much fun as you possibly can.
00:02:48.937 --> 00:02:53.157 Be good to each other. Be kind to each other. And for goodness sakes, you guys, be safe. 00:02:53.200 --> 00:03:05.128 Music.